Gloom n’ Doom
from a Very Disappointed Special Correspondent T.S. deHaviland
Now that we’re done talking our progressive friends down off ledges, let’s take a look at what the next four years might have in store.
1. Expect Roe v. Wade to be challenged.
It looks inevitable that W. will nominate at least one new Supreme Court justice. If that’s Rehnquist, we won’t see much change. But if he has a shot at John Paul Stevens’ seat, given that he has vowed to nominate someone like Justice Thomas or Scalia, the delicate 5-4 split for choice will surely become a 5-4 split against it. The only thing standing in the way are the 45 Democratic senators. That they would have the political will or political capital to block a Bush “strict constructionist” nominee is doubtful.
2. Expect a health care plan. Expect it not to work.
If the Republican ties to the insurance lobby and his existing prescription drug plan are any indication, a future Bush health care scheme would simply pump more money into a broken system instead of fixing the system by keeping costs down. His calls for tort reform could account for a .5% decrease in the cost of health care according to the government’s own bean counters. With costs rising 20% a year above the rate of inflation (which is itself between 1% and 3% annually) it’s difficult to see how that would help. And if you think Medical Savings Accounts are going to fix the problem, ask yourself this: where is the money to put in those accounts going to come from? That’s right, your pocket. Furthermore, MSAs still fail to address the problem of rising costs.
3. Expect more degradation of civil liberties.
The current Supreme Court was nice enough to deny people seeking redress of grievance under the Americans with Disabilities Act the right to sue the states. A more conservative Supreme Court would probably just rubber stamp whatever fascistic legislation Bush wants to set up. The current administration has lobbied hard for essentially unchecked power in times of war (like right now), which our current Supreme Court has denied. A Bush-packed court might not be so kind. With congress stacked in favor of it, The USA Patriot Act shows no signs of sunsetting. American conservatives, Bush included, run on a platform of upholding and defending freedom, yet the only freedom they have consistently upheld is the 2nd Amendment. The theory behind this is that with the right to bear arms We the People can defend our other rights from individuals and government alike. This is simply stupid. If you try to contest your eroding due process rights by taking your deer rifle to congress, you’ll simply get arrested. You may have a lot of guns, but as Ruby Ridge and Waco have shown, the government has more.
4. Expect a further erosion of international relations.
Bush’s particular brand of religious fundamentalism won’t allow him to see both sides of the Israel/Palestine problem, which is the major issue in the Arab world. Combine that with the mess in Iraq and Bush’s saber-rattling against Iran and Syria, and you’ve got the perfect storm for blowing up new levels of Islamic militantism. Bush has already managed to alienate much of the world even with the moderate Colin Powell at the helm at the State Department. If Powell gets the axe in favor of a more Bush-friendly Secretary of State, Bush’s “fuck the world” foreign policy could run unchecked.
5. Expect the gap between the rich and poor to widen.
Bush’s commitment to “tax reform” in his second term is just a euphemism for a flat tax. A flat tax would hit the poor and middle classes hard while lowering the tax burden on the very wealthy even more. The top 2% of income earners already control 90% of all wealth in the U.S. The Republicans’ history of corporate welfare (remember the $138 billion in tax cuts corporations got a few months ago?) and the Bush administration’s on-record support for offshoring American jobs indicate that wages and benefits, much less job security, are not likely to rise substantially in the next four years.
6. Expect high gas prices.
There are two things at work here. One is steadily increasing demand. Bush’s pro-production energy policy won’t help that here at home, and China’s booming economy won’t help that abroad. With both Bush and Cheney having strong ties to the oil industry, chances are any attempt to reign in prices will be scuttled quickly. Higher prices = more profits in a tight market, and you don’t really expect Bush and Cheney to forget where their bread is buttered, do you? The Bush family history is to go back into oil after serving in office, as George H.W. Bush’s post-presidency career path has indicated. What W. does now is just padding his resume for when he gets out of office in 2008. How can a fellow survive on a measly $200,000 a year government pension anyway?
7. Expect more environmental damage.
Remember those hydrogen-powered cars we were supposed to have by 2005? I’ve looked at both Car and Driver and Road and Track and haven’t seen them anywhere in the lists of new models. Bush’s pro-big business and pro-production energy policy comes into play here too. The idea that environmental legislation destroys jobs, while specious to begin with, is gospel in the White House. Bush’s solution is to let the corporate foxes guard the ecological hen house. Such policies in Texas while he was governor made his home state one of the most polluted in the nation. Would you like your planet baked or fried?
All of this stuff has been in the news over and over again for the past few years. It should be common knowledge. But if we look at it all laid out like this, the path becomes quite clear: it’s a long, oil-slickened slide to the bottom. Let’s hope we can get find a handhold or two along the way.